Perfetta fin qui la previsione a 10 giorni in cui avevamo ipotizzato l'arrivo dell'alta pressione sul mediterraneo,alta pressione che ha portato temperature abbondantemente sopra la media su tutta la penisola tranne che nelle zone colpite dalla nebbia dove si è avuto una falsa sensazione di freddo,falsa perchè bastava climb a hill to realize the hot off-season.
What will happen now? "In the near future seems to take place on the Atlantic that will bring rain and snow even at low altitude over the center in the mountains north and south.
Our peninsula is in fact a middle ground between the mighty mass of cold air to the east and unleashed a Canadian polar vortex at the center north occidente.Da Sunday the clouds begin to grow weak, bringing rains to the north and west of Tuscany, the situation will remain almost unchanged until about Monday when the weather will deteriorate progressively from Tuesday ovest.Da Atlantic trough sink in a Mediterranean cyclogenesis resulting in a Tyrrhenian will a mix of moist Atlantic air and cold air orientale.Sull 'Eastern Europe stazionerà in fact a huge lake of cold continental origin, the Siberian air mass could have come directly to the Mediterranean if it were not for the strong acceleration of stratcooling polar vortex induced by the end of January (NAM> 1.5). Between Tuesday and Thursday the weather will affect the entire peninsula with snow in the Alps around the 600m and 800-900m north of the Apennines, from Wednesday to be monitored a pressure over the vortex center Tirreno-powered air cooler that could deepen the north east giving rise to intense and persistent phenomena, especially on the Tyrrhenian (Tscana-Lazio-Campania) also a temporal character which could cause local flooding.
Temperatures will be above average until Monday, after which will drop on taking averages of the period or slightly below the north, the winds will blow from the southwest and you will storm on the Tyrrhenian especially on Monday.
What will happen in the long term? Will be back in the winter right?
interesting questions also because we leave the most difficult period for the models of the past winters, were 15 days where every run we have seen everything and its opposite tutto.L 'hypothesis is still prevalent today that the conditioning of the NAM can inhibit cold phases lasting due to a strong zonal input able to run the Canadian vp a thousand thus causing the positive phase of the AO. we are witnessing the classic understatement of the models that propose scenarios to 200 hours with cold and weakening of the Canadian-AO, but with the approach of ' event they are forced to withdraw because of a vp that none of it to weaken.
all while in the stratosphere is about to happen yet another cooling even if the amount is small compared to the ruin-winter in January.
If you look at the paper and the ECMWF 100hpa to 240 hours we see the tendency for displacement of the VP to eastern Siberia and Japan, displacement which probably also will give some satisfaction to the lovers of cold italiani.Infatti as you can see the vp loosen the grip on the Atlantic east, leaving a large area of \u200b\u200bhigh pressure from Spain to Siberia, will be established as a secondary movement from the east.
This movement should lead to a retrogression in the period 20-25 of masses of cold air also to the Mediterranean basin, but the inability to prevent the elevation of high pressure Azorean again a very important episode in our penisola.L 'cold air coming from the east by what will be his triettoria can still take satisfaction in spite should not occur with heat from his record.Probabilmente triettoria will be quite high since the previous going to strike again HP cut from the point of fracture flow Atlantic (north of the Alps).
From February 25 hp should return to a period of mild temperatures again around March 5 and could tip the state of the NAM since the cooling in place to give a new accelerated vps but its offset in troposphere may result in the birth of a strong disturbance that would turn into a period of AO - in the troposphere since the early hypotheses put forth by marzo.Questa of time, however, seems to lose a little 'trust, but not for this we feel it to discard it.
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